On overpaying Adam Wainwright

Last offseason, the St. Louis Cardinals were faced with the biggest decision in franchise history: let Albert Pujols, face of the franchise and one of the game's all-time greats, walk out the door, or pony up to pay him at the expense of the franchise's well-being.

This year's - and what may ultimately be next year's - decision isn't on the level of the Pujols negotiations, but Adam Wainwright's future is still the biggest question facing the Cardinals in 2013 and beyond.

The Cardinals were in position to let Pujols walk because they had identified Allen Craig as someone who could provide great value at first base for a fraction of the cost. In a similar way, the Cardinals have a seemingly endless list of young pitchers who could develop into above-average starters at the major league level while costing next-to-nothing for the foreseeable future. Adam Wainwright, meet Shelby Miller.

But for the similarities in their situations, one major difference separates Wainwright from Pujols - letting Wainwright go would be a mistake.

That's not to say they should hand him a blank check. Wainwright shouldn't be paid like the game's best pitcher, and he probably shouldn't be in the neighborhood of the Zack Greinkes and CC Sabathias of the world. Wainwright is 31 and has had major elbow surgery, after all, and neither of those things can be overlooked.

In terms of average annual value, Wainwright will most likely be asking for a deal similar to what the Giants gave Matt Cain at the beginning of the 2012 season. Cain got a six-year deal worth $127.5 million, averaging out to $21.25 million per year. Just before the trading deadline, Cole Hamels got six years and $144 million from the Phillies, an AAV of $24 million.

Those numbers are relevant not only because they were done within the last year but also because those two players are very close to Wainwright in fWAR since 2009. It's unfair in that Wainwright missed out on an entire season's worth of starts, but even while accruing zero wins in 2011 Wainright has managed to accumulate 16.2 wins above replacement since 2009. Hamels and Cain have 16.6 and 15.6 while starting 28 and 32 more games in that span, respectively. Using those as benchmarks, it stands to reason that Wainwright will want a deal with an AAV somewhere around $22-24 million.

As noted, his age and injury history make that a tough number to swallow. Even with a strong rebound performance in 2012, there is no guarantee Wainwright will remain as healthy as he was pre-injury. And pitchers in general are already in their decline by the time they're Wainwright's age, so the Cardinals would likely be paying him for past production if they were to agree with the pitcher's asking price.

Instead, the Cardinals should be looking to strike a deal somewhere in the four-year, $84 million range. That's a nice balance of acknowledging past performance while limiting risk, at least relatively, in the future, even if it's knowingly overpaying a bit at the tail end of the contract.

The same people who advocated letting Pujols walk - and I was one of them - will argue against a mid-market team paying an aging pitcher $21 million per year given the promise of their minor league system. On the contrary, I'd argue that's one of the main reasons Wainwright might be worth the money.

The Cardinals franchise and its fans have been fortunate to have Chris Carpenter around. But as 2012 showed, Carpenter won't be around much longer, let alone forever. Carpenter has aided Wainwright in becoming the pitcher he is, and Wainwright undoubtedly learned from Carpenter how to be the leader of a rotation. It's the Cardinal way, and it's The Cardinal Way. And Wainwright would be the perfect teacher for the likes of Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez and the rest of the new class.

Wainwright wouldn't just be an expensive mentor, though. He showed last season that he's still got some pitching ability left, and it's not unreasonable to think he could exceed his value in the first year or two of his contract. Wainwright had a FIP of 3.10 in 2012, slightly above his 2010 number and virtually even with his 2009 number, a season in which he finished third in Cy Young voting. To say Wainwright had a down 2012 or that he's not the pitcher he used to be is grossly overstated.

And the Cardinals have positioned themselves in a way that they can keep Wainwright without sacrificing the future. Avoiding a crippling deal with Pujols and limiting their long-term contracts for aging players leaves them with some room to maneuver - the departure of Carlos Beltran, Rafael Furcal and Chris Carpenter frees up $33 million after this season and their replacements would likely cost close to the league minimum, meaning the Cardinals could decrease payroll even with a Wainwright raise. The Cardinals could afford to pay their ace like the leader he is on and off the field; from a team standpoint, they can't afford not to.

One year out, it seems as though the Cardinals made the right decision letting Pujols walk. It would be wrong to let Wainwright do the same.