On overpaying Adam Wainwright

Last offseason, the St. Louis Cardinals were faced with the biggest decision in franchise history: let Albert Pujols, face of the franchise and one of the game's all-time greats, walk out the door, or pony up to pay him at the expense of the franchise's well-being.

This year's - and what may ultimately be next year's - decision isn't on the level of the Pujols negotiations, but Adam Wainwright's future is still the biggest question facing the Cardinals in 2013 and beyond.

The Cardinals were in position to let Pujols walk because they had identified Allen Craig as someone who could provide great value at first base for a fraction of the cost. In a similar way, the Cardinals have a seemingly endless list of young pitchers who could develop into above-average starters at the major league level while costing next-to-nothing for the foreseeable future. Adam Wainwright, meet Shelby Miller.

But for the similarities in their situations, one major difference separates Wainwright from Pujols - letting Wainwright go would be a mistake.

That's not to say they should hand him a blank check. Wainwright shouldn't be paid like the game's best pitcher, and he probably shouldn't be in the neighborhood of the Zack Greinkes and CC Sabathias of the world. Wainwright is 31 and has had major elbow surgery, after all, and neither of those things can be overlooked.

In terms of average annual value, Wainwright will most likely be asking for a deal similar to what the Giants gave Matt Cain at the beginning of the 2012 season. Cain got a six-year deal worth $127.5 million, averaging out to $21.25 million per year. Just before the trading deadline, Cole Hamels got six years and $144 million from the Phillies, an AAV of $24 million.

Those numbers are relevant not only because they were done within the last year but also because those two players are very close to Wainwright in fWAR since 2009. It's unfair in that Wainwright missed out on an entire season's worth of starts, but even while accruing zero wins in 2011 Wainright has managed to accumulate 16.2 wins above replacement since 2009. Hamels and Cain have 16.6 and 15.6 while starting 28 and 32 more games in that span, respectively. Using those as benchmarks, it stands to reason that Wainwright will want a deal with an AAV somewhere around $22-24 million.

As noted, his age and injury history make that a tough number to swallow. Even with a strong rebound performance in 2012, there is no guarantee Wainwright will remain as healthy as he was pre-injury. And pitchers in general are already in their decline by the time they're Wainwright's age, so the Cardinals would likely be paying him for past production if they were to agree with the pitcher's asking price.

Instead, the Cardinals should be looking to strike a deal somewhere in the four-year, $84 million range. That's a nice balance of acknowledging past performance while limiting risk, at least relatively, in the future, even if it's knowingly overpaying a bit at the tail end of the contract.

The same people who advocated letting Pujols walk - and I was one of them - will argue against a mid-market team paying an aging pitcher $21 million per year given the promise of their minor league system. On the contrary, I'd argue that's one of the main reasons Wainwright might be worth the money.

The Cardinals franchise and its fans have been fortunate to have Chris Carpenter around. But as 2012 showed, Carpenter won't be around much longer, let alone forever. Carpenter has aided Wainwright in becoming the pitcher he is, and Wainwright undoubtedly learned from Carpenter how to be the leader of a rotation. It's the Cardinal way, and it's The Cardinal Way. And Wainwright would be the perfect teacher for the likes of Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez and the rest of the new class.

Wainwright wouldn't just be an expensive mentor, though. He showed last season that he's still got some pitching ability left, and it's not unreasonable to think he could exceed his value in the first year or two of his contract. Wainwright had a FIP of 3.10 in 2012, slightly above his 2010 number and virtually even with his 2009 number, a season in which he finished third in Cy Young voting. To say Wainwright had a down 2012 or that he's not the pitcher he used to be is grossly overstated.

And the Cardinals have positioned themselves in a way that they can keep Wainwright without sacrificing the future. Avoiding a crippling deal with Pujols and limiting their long-term contracts for aging players leaves them with some room to maneuver - the departure of Carlos Beltran, Rafael Furcal and Chris Carpenter frees up $33 million after this season and their replacements would likely cost close to the league minimum, meaning the Cardinals could decrease payroll even with a Wainwright raise. The Cardinals could afford to pay their ace like the leader he is on and off the field; from a team standpoint, they can't afford not to.

One year out, it seems as though the Cardinals made the right decision letting Pujols walk. It would be wrong to let Wainwright do the same.

Do the Cardinals make sense for Kyle Lohse...again?

In a piece for Grantland Wednesday, author Jonah Keri made an educated guess that Kyle Lohse would end up back with the Cardinals when all is said and done. SB Nation's Grant Brisbee took a look at Lohse a few weeks ago and also concluded, begrudgingly, that Lohse would end up back with the Cardinals. St. Louis is a popular landing spot for Lohse given the unexpectedly dry market for the pitcher's services, but what sort of deal could he expect to get from the team?

As it stands, the Cardinals don't have a need for Lohse or any other free agent starting pitcher. Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook, Lance Lynn, Jaime Garcia, Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly and Trevor Rosenthal are all under team control in 2013 and all started games at some level for the organization in 2012. Even with the injury concerns - the health of Garcia's shoulder is still a question, and it's uncertain how much the Cardinals will be able to get out of Carpenter - there's enough depth there that the team hasn't been linked to any pitchers this offseason.

In that sense, the Cardinals and Lohse don't seem to be a fit. But Lohse is still a valuable pitcher and, cost aside, would have a spot in any MLB rotation. In 2012, his age 33 season, Lohse had the best year of his career, winning 16 games and posting a 3.6 WAR according to FanGraphs. That WAR was good enough for 28th in baseball among pitchers. Lohse could be and has been a contributing member of a rotation for a contender.

It was those numbers and that belief that led Lohse and agent Scott Boras to turn down the Cardinals' $13.3 million qualifying offer earlier this offseason. The expectations were that Lohse and the rest of the free agent starting pitchers would cash in huge paydays this winter. And to some extent that has come to fruition - Zack Greinke got six years and $147 million from the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Anibal Sanchez, who posted a 3.8 WAR in 2012, got five years and $80 million from the Detroit Tigers. Even Edwin Jackson, whose WAR was almost a full win below Lohse's last year, recently got a four-year, $52 million deal.

There are likely a few reasons Lohse hasn't inked a long-term deal yet. Derrick Goold took a closer look at one: the loss of a draft pick, and subsequent loss of the bonus attached to that pick, that comes with signing Lohse. Lohse's age - he'll pitch the entire 2013 season at 34 - is also presumably working against him.

Questions about how good Lohse will be going forward also make his value tough to figure. Over the past two seasons, Lohse has generated 6.1 wins above replacement; in his previous 10 he was worth a total of 18.6. A pitcher who relies on changing speeds and generating weak contact - Lohse's BABIP the past two seasons was .269 and .262, respectively - it's fair to wonder if Lohse is worth the kind of money he and Boras are looking for.

At this point, Boras's best bet may be a "pillow" deal for Lohse in hopes that next year's offseason is more lucrative for his client. It's not a foreign concept for Lohse and the Cardinals - it was a similar-type deal that brought Lohse to the Cardinals in March 2008. Other teams won't forfeit a draft pick for one year of Lohse's services, so the Cardinals are likely Lohse's only option for such a deal. And it's the only deal the Cardinals would presumably sign as well, considering the talent that should be close to major-league ready this season and certainly by 2014.

Lohse turned down a one-year, $13.3 million offer a few months ago, but given the position Lohse is in the terms of a one-year deal shouldn't approach that number now. The offer should instead be cheap enough that the Cardinals get the better end of the deal. If Lohse were to produce another 3.6-win season, $13.3 million would be a slight bargain; if we assume, due to aging, regression to the mean, luck normalization, etc., that Lohse is closer to the 2-win pitcher he's been over the course of his career, a $13.3 million deal would actually be a win for Lohse.

Going by the calculation that each win above replacement is worth $5 million to a team, Lohse, producing at or slightly above his career WAR-per-year, would be worth something around $11 million next season. Given that the Cardinals have arms like Miller, Rosenthal and Kelly who are all capable of producing around 2 wins next season (Kelly, regarded as the pitcher with the lowest amount of upside of the three, produced 1 win in 107 innings last season) they shouldn't pay the premium for Lohse. Instead, the Cardinals should push for something closer to the one-year, $8 million range. They are in the driver's seat, after all.

Does a deal like that make sense for Lohse, a pitcher who received Cy Young votes a month ago? Probably not. So maybe projecting him to be a member of the Cardinals in 2013 doesn't make sense, either.